453
AXPZ20 KNHC 282059
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Apr 28 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 11N74W to 07N86W to 08N101W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N101W to 07.5N114W to beyond 06N140W.
Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted from 00.5N to 09N east of 86.5W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 06.5N between
86.5W and 109W, and from 03.5N to 09N between 111W and 137W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Midday satellite scatterometer data showed fresh northwesterly
winds continuing across the Baja California waters, and gradually
become fresh to moderate N winds from Cabo San Lazaro southward
to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas across these waters remain 7
to 9 ft in merging S and NW swell. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico to Puerto Angel, where
seas are 6 to 8 ft in S swell. Scatterometer data also showed
fresh northerly winds spilling out of the central Gulf of
Tehuantepec and extending 90 nm offshore, where seas are 7 to 8
ft. Gentle to moderate northwesterly winds prevail across the
central Gulf of California, while gentle or lighter winds are
elsewhere across the Gulf waters. Seas there are 3 ft across
central portions, and 5 to 6 ft in S swell across the entrance.
For the forecast, high pressure centered well NW of the area
extends a ridge southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands.
This ridge is expected to remain in place across the Baja waters
through Tue morning, then weaken slightly across the region
through the remainder of the week. This pattern will support
moderate to fresh NW winds across the Baja waters through Tue
morning, then gradually become gentle to moderate winds through
the remainder of the week. Moderate to fresh N to NE gap winds
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will weaken and become variable
Tue though Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to move
into the Baja Norte waters late during the upcoming weekend,
bringing a significant increase in winds and seas to the regional
waters.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Midday satellite scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh
E-NE gap winds across the Papagayo region northward across the
central Nicaragua waters, becoming light to gentle easterly winds
northward to the Gulf of Fonseca. Moderate northerly winds
continue across the Gulf of Panama and extend southward to near
05N. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the area waters.
Seas continue at 6-8 ft in slowly subsiding S to SW swell.
Scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms are
active across the area waters east of 86W.
For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will persist to the
north of the region to maintain the current gap wind flow pattern
across the Papagayo region through early Fri before diminishing
significantly. Moderate to fresh easterly gap winds will pulse
across the Papagayo region each night and morning during this
time, then diminish. Moderate northerly winds across the Gulf of
Panama will diminish slightly Tue through Thu, then become light
and variable into the upcoming weekend. Cross equatorial S-SW
swell across the regional waters will subside through tonight.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....
A broad ridge dominates the regional Pacific waters N of 10N
and W of 110W, centered on a 1033 mb high near 37N135W. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh NE trade winds N of the
ITCZ to 21N and W of 120. Seas over these waters are in the 7-9
ft range in merging S and NE swell. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic
winds dominate the waters N of 21N, with seas of 5 to 6 ft. N of
21N and E of 125W, northerly swell is moving into the area waters
and producing seas of 7 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate N to NE
winds dominate most of the area E of 120W and north of the ITCZ.
Seas there are 6 to 7 ft in S swell. S of the ITCZ/monsoon
trough, gentle winds and seas of 6-8 ft in fading S-SW swell
prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active within
120 nm of the ITCZ and monsoon trough.
For the forecast, the broad high pressure ridge currently
dominating the region W of 110W will remain in place through
early Wed, then begin to weaken and shift SE, ahead of an
approaching frontal system. Little change in winds and wave
heights are expected N of the ITCZ through early Wed, before a
decreasing trend ensues from the middle to end of the week.
Cross equatorial S swell propagating across the area waters will
gradually subside through tonight.
$$
Stripling
