000
AXNT20 KNHC 282235
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Apr 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis is primarily over land across western 
Africa, however, a small segment exits the coast along the border
of Mauritania and Senegal near 16N16.5W and reaches southwestward
to near 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to the coast of 
Brazil near 00S50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is evident south of 05.5N between 15W and 44W.

GULF OF AMERICA...
 
A weak pressure pattern continues across the Gulf this afternoon.
The main influence is high pressure over the western Atlantic,
centered along the middle Atlantic coast, with a stationary front
across NE Florida, and trough over the southwest Gulf. No shower 
or thunderstorm activity is evident, but hazy conditions are being
reported in some sections of the western Gulf due to smoke from 
local agricultural and forest fires in eastern and southern 
Mexico. Light breezes and nearly calm seas are noted in the far 
northeast Gulf, with gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 
ft seas elsewhere, except to 5 ft across the central Texas coastal
waters.

For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to dominate the
basin through at least Tue, supporting gentle to moderate E to 
SE winds and moderate seas across the northeastern and north-
central Gulf. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds each 
evening over the eastern and central Bay of Campeche through the 
forecast period due to local effects related to a thermal trough 
coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh winds and moderate seas 
are forecast in the Straits of Florida at night through Wed night.
Southeast winds and seas will increase over the western and 
central Gulf for Tue through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A broad deep layer trough is over the western Atlantic extending
S-SW to the north-central Caribbean. Divergent southwesterly flow
aloft ahead of the trough continues to support scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms over the southwest Caribbean coastal 
waters from northwest Colombia to southern Nicaragua. Farther 
east, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is 
producing scattered passing showers across much of the northeastern
Caribbean and adjacent islands east of about 70W. Drier 
conditions are noted over the northwestern Caribbean, under the 
influence of the northern flow aloft west of the upper trough. At
the surface, the wind flow pattern is being driven by relatively 
high pressure that is present north of the area along the middle
Atlantic coast, and the usual low pressure found off Colombia. 
This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate easterly flow across
the basin along with seas of 2 to 4 ft, except for fresh 
northeast winds off Colombia, and moderate to fresh northeast to 
east winds in the lee of Cuba. Seas are 6 to 8 ft off of Colombia.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the basin combined 
with the Colombian low will support pulsing fresh to strong winds 
at night in the Windward Passage and south of Cuba, tonight 
through at least Wed night, with mainly moderate trades elsewhere.
The deep layered trough across the basin today will reorganize Tue
through mid week, and support active weather across the NE 
Caribbean and adjacent islands Wed through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front reaches from near Bermuda to 28N70W to just offshore
of northeast Florida. To the southeast of this, a trough persists 
from 29N63W to the Mona Passage. A few clusters of showers and 
thunderstorms are active off northeast Florida, while scattered
showers are just ahead of the front. Fresh NE to E winds and 5 to
7 ft seas are noted north of the front. Gentle to moderate NE
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere to the west of the
surface trough. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 5 to
6 ft prevail between the trough and 60W. The deep-layered trough
across the Atlantic is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms extending from the NE Caribbean northward to beyond
31N, between 65W and 55W. East of 60W, the pattern is dominated 
by 1032 mb high pressure centered west of the Azores Islands, 
supporting fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a southward moving cold front 
extends from 31N64W to 28N72W to 30N80W. The front will reach from
near 31N57W to 25N70W to the NW Bahamas early Tue, then stall on 
Wed from near 31N53W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. High
pressure north of the front will slide SE behind the front, to
produce fresh NE winds and moderate to rough seas following the 
front. High pressure will move to near Bermuda and dominate the 
forecast waters west of 65W for remainder of the week.

$$ 
Stripling